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30-26 +8.55
229.75 out - 238.30 in (+3.7%)

Morelia vs Jaguares - Mexico - talked enough about Morelia so you all know what I think of them. They will miss important MF, Fernando Arce, but are otherwise a full squad. Jaguares with a solid start, 4-0-1, but this will not continue. They did outplay a lethargic America team in midweek but it does not change my opinion that this is a midtable squad. Morelia with an OK effort in 1-0 road loss at Veracruz, and missed a huge chance to tie it late, but result was just. I really can't understand these scoring issues...0-1-1-1-0 in 1st 5 matches? Luis Gabrield Rey is a fantastic striker and either of his partners in attack (Marquez and Villanueva) are solid players. This is bound to improve and the Jaguares defense is not solid. Great odds IMO, and a decent sized bet. Seriously this would be 8.5-9/10 if it were not a bogey team like Monarcas. Morelia -1/4 goal 6.5/10 @+109

LA Galaxy vs KC Wizards - MLS - home sweet home. LA have played just once here in last 6 games, a 2-0 win over Dallas but are still the hottest team in MLS with just two losses in 11. Their defense continues to be dominant having allowed just 5 goals in those 11 games and posting 5 consecutive home shutouts. KC ended their 9 game winless streak a few weeks ago and have played OK since then, 2-2-1 in last 5, but were beaten by LA at home 60 days ago by a 2-0 score. Both teams with work to do for a playoff spot as LA sit 3 points in back of RSL and KC are 1 point in front of RBNY but it's pretty clear LA are on the rise since the World Cup. Wizards got some good news this week when the club announced their sale to a group of investors which was something the club had been waiting for over the last 1.5 years. Both teams played midweek matches so equally fatigued. KC still without top defender Conrad and LA without their top defender Troy Roberts. This is the first of 3 straight home games and probably the weakest opponent remaining (Houston, Col, Chivas USA, Dallas are others) so a must win at home. LA Galaxy -1/4 goal 6/10 @1.83 (-120)
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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sneaking a Chile bet in here too

O'Higgins vs Wanderers - Chile Saturday - dating back to last tourney O'Higgins are unbeaten in 6 home games, 3-2-0, including a solid 3-0-0 9/2 this year. Wanderers are a very strange team and still punching above their weight, but held on for a 2-1 win at U de Conce last week. I expect this match to go the way of SW's trips in the Spring/Summer which were a 3-1 loss in Talca and 4-0 loss at Puerto Montt. SW lead group A with 11 points but bookies know this team is paper thin and will lucky to finish out of the Group A basement. I will keep betting against them and expect O'Higgins to really slap them around on Saturday. Was expecting a solid -1 line like last week at U de Conce but getting an even better team at a quarter goal less. btw, always sort of strange betting Chile early as odds seem to move drastically, and unpredictably, on gameday. O'Higgins -3/4 4.5/10 @1.813 (Pinn, 1.79 asians)
 

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Malta vs Bosnia-Herzegovina - Euro 2008 Qualie - Bosnia's only win by 3+ goals was at home vs San Marino who are far worse than Malta. Before this, you'd have to go back to 2001 vs Liechtenstein 5 years ago when they won 5-0 at home. Their last road win of 3+ goals was in 1999 so it is not a normal result for them. Malta certainly not very good but in last year had good results against Northern Ireland, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Japan. Last meetings were 2-0 Bosnia home win in 2001 and 2-1 Malta home win in 1999. Bosnia's best player, Salihamidzic, just retired and 3 other key players are injured. I don't expect Malta to win but I also think a 3 goal away win is improbable. Malta +2 goals 2.5/10 @+114
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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Saturday 3-1 +11.40
Morelia 2-1 won +7.09
Galaxy 2-1 won +4.98
O'Higgins 1-0 won +1.83
Malta 2-5 lost -2.50

33-27 +19.95
249.25 out - 269.20 in (+8%)
 

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